2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

我国区域新质生产力水平测度、障碍因子诊断及时空演化

Measurement of Regional New Quality Productivity Level, Diagnosis of Obstacle Factor and Space-time Evolution in China

  • 摘要: 基于新质生产力的内涵,文章围绕新制造、新服务、新业态和综合指标等维度构建我国区域新质生产力 水平测度评价指标体系,利用熵权 TOPSIS 模型对我国区域新质生产力水平进行测度,并运用障碍因子诊断模型、马尔科夫区制转移模型和空间核密度等方法对我国区域新质生产力水平进行障碍因子诊断和时空演化分析 。结果表明:(1)我国各区域的新质生产力水平呈现不均衡分布,分布梯度依次为南部沿海、东部沿海、北部沿海、长江中游、西南地区、黄河中游、东北和西北地区。(2)新质生产力的发展需要关注“技术市场成交额”“国外技术引进合同”“高等教育人数比例”“专利申请数量”等方面的问题。(3)我国整体新质生产力水平发展处于上升趋势,在 2017—2020 年跃迁至“高波动”区间,2020 年后逐渐转为“低波动”区间 。东北、东部沿海等省份呈现正向的空间动态溢出效应,而北部沿海等省份容易受到来自区域内其他省份的负向空间动态溢出效应的影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on the connotation of new quality productive forces, this paper constructs an index system for meas- uring and evaluating the level of regional new quality productive forces in China by focusing on the dimensions of new manufacturing, new services, new business formats and comprehensive indicators, and utilizes entropy weight TOPSIS method to measure the level of regional new quality productive forces in China . Furthermore, the barrier factor diagnosis model, Markov regime switch- ing model and spatial kernel density were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of regional new quality productive forces in China. The results show that: (1) The level of new quality productive forces in different regions of China presents an uneven distribution, with the distribution gradient being the southern coastal area, the eastern coastal area, the northern coastal area, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the southwest area, the middle reaches of the Yel- low River, the northeast area, and the northwest area. (2) The development of new quality productive forces needs to pay attention to the "technology market turnover", "foreign technology import contracts", "the proportion of individuals with higher education", "the number of patent applications" and other issues. (3) The development of China's overall new qual- ity productive forces level is on an upward trend, jumping to the "high volatility" range from 2017 to 2020, and thengradu- ally turning to the "low volatility" range. The Northeast and eastern coastal provinces show a positive spatial dynamic spillover effect,while the northern coastal provinces are susceptible to the negative spatial dynamic spillover effect from other provinces in the region.

     

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