2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

中国城市经济高质量发展南北差距的 测度及形成机理

Measurement and Mechanisms of High-Quality Urban Economic Development in China

  • 摘要: 促进中国南北地区均衡发展是实现区域协调发展的必然要求,是推进中国式现代化的关键一环。本文立足于近年来中国城市经济高质量发展南北差距持续扩大的背景,借助中国2006—2021年280个城市的面板数据,考察了中国城市经济高质量发展南北差距的时空演化特征和形成机理。研究发现,样本期内,中国城市经济高质量发展水平稳步提升,且表现出“南高北低、南快北慢”的空间格局,特别是2013年之后城市经济高质量发展南北分化现象日益凸显。区域差异分解结果显示,区域内差异是中国城市经济高质量发展南北差距的主要来源,同时区域间差异的贡献度也不断提升。在形成机理方面,QAP分析法研究表明,经济发展基本面差异、经济发展结构差异和经济发展成果差异是中国城市经济高质量发展南北差距形成的主要原因,经济发展安全差异的影响较弱,且南北地区驱动因素变化趋势呈现出不同的特点。基于上述研究结论,为有效缩小我国城市经济高质量发展南北差距、构建南北地区城市经济高质量均衡发展的新格局,本文提出了相应的对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Promoting balanced regional development between northern and southern China is essential for achieving coordinated national growth and a key component of advancing Chinese-style modernization. This paper explores the widening North-South gap in high-quality urban economic development in China, particularly in recent years. Using panel data from 280 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2021, the study examines the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying mechanisms of this gap from the perspective of high-quality urban economic development. The findings reveal that over the study period, the level of high-quality urban economic development in China has steadily improved, with a distinct spatial pattern of “higher in the south, lower in the north; faster in the south, slower in the north.” Notably, after 2013, the North-South disparity has become more pronounced. Decomposition analysis of regional differences indicates that regional variations are the primary source of the North-South gap in high-quality urban economic development, and the contribution of these regional differences has been growing. The QAP (Quadratic Assignment Procedure) analysis highlights that differences in economic development fundamentals, economic structure, and development outcomes are the key drivers of this gap, while disparities in economic development security have a relatively minor impact. Furthermore, the driving factors in the North and South exhibit divergent trends. Based on these findings, the paper offers policy recommendations aimed at narrowing the gap in high-quality economic development between northern and southern cities. These suggestions aim to build a more balanced and sustainable pattern of high-quality economic development across China’s urban regions.

     

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