1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

张冲,陈玉秀,郑倩. 中国离婚率变动趋势、影响因素及对策[J]. 西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020,39(2):41 − 49 . DOI: 10.12189/j.issn.1672-8505.2020.02.006
引用本文: 张冲,陈玉秀,郑倩. 中国离婚率变动趋势、影响因素及对策[J]. 西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020,39(2):41 − 49 . DOI: 10.12189/j.issn.1672-8505.2020.02.006
ZHANG Chong, CHEN Yu-xiu, ZHENG Qian. The Trend, Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of Divorce Rate in China[J]. Journal of Xihua University (Philosophy & Social Sciences) , 2020, 39(2): 41-49. DOI: 10.12189/j.issn.1672-8505.2020.02.006
Citation: ZHANG Chong, CHEN Yu-xiu, ZHENG Qian. The Trend, Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of Divorce Rate in China[J]. Journal of Xihua University (Philosophy & Social Sciences) , 2020, 39(2): 41-49. DOI: 10.12189/j.issn.1672-8505.2020.02.006

中国离婚率变动趋势、影响因素及对策

The Trend, Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of Divorce Rate in China

  • 摘要: 改革开放以来,中国经济社会快速发展,但同时离婚率也不断升高,尤其是2002年以来,增速加快,已经超过许多发达国家。文章基于中国2010—2018年省级面板数据(港澳台地区除外),运用固定效应模型分析离婚率的影响因素,研究结果显示:人均GDP对数、城镇人口比重、城镇失业率、15岁及以上人口性别比、住房价格对数都对离婚率有正向的显著影响,其中人均GDP和住房价格上升与近年来离婚率持续上升存在较大关联。降低离婚率,需要从培育健康婚育观、注重人性化城市建设、适当控制住房价格、加强青年夫妻就业服务保障、完善婚姻法五个方面采取应对策略。

     

    Abstract: Since the reform and the opening up, China’s economy and society have developed rapidly. At the same time, divorce rate has been rising, especially since 2002, and the accelerated divorce rate has surpassed many developed countries. Based on the provincial panel data (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2018 in China, this paper uses the fixed effect model to analyze the influencing factors of divorce rate. The results show that the logarithm of per capita GDP, the proportion of urban population, the rate of urban unemployment, the sex ratio of the population aged 15 and above, and the logarithm of housing price all have positive and significant impacts on divorce rate, in which the increase of per capita GDP and housing price have greater correlation with the continuous rise in divorce rates in recent years. To reduce the divorce rate, the following countermeasures should be taken: cultivating healthy marriage and childbearing concept, paying attention to humanized urban construction, appropriatly controling housing prices, strengthening employment service guarantee for young couples, and perfecting the marriage law.

     

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