1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

基于政府主导的应急供应链时延管控协同研究

Research on Coordination of Time Delay Control in Government-led Emergency Supply Chain

  • 摘要: 文章针对突发事件导致的应急供应链短期失能,及其引发的应急公共产品供需不匹配问题,分析了需求供给扰动下信息的时效性与时延性,构建了基于政府主导的应急公共产品时延管控采购决策模型。文章将全时段决策问题转化为多个序贯阶段动态决策问题,并将所有决策主体的决策变量视为关于时间的函数进行演化分析;在协同和非协同两种模式下比较供应商的效用以确定模型的可行性;通过数值仿真研究突发事件中各主体最优决策值及其相关参数的敏感性。研究结果表明:在一定范围内政府应急管理成本与时延值正相关,应急公共产品供应商期望效用及柔性供给量与时延值负相关;在时延管控中物资实际需求量、物资采购价格在不同时空下影响时延值的敏感程度不同。该模型能够给政府和相关企业在应对突发事件时进行合理的应急公共产品采购或生产决策提供参考,从而实现协同策略。

     

    Abstract: In view of the short-term failure of emergency supply chain caused by emergencies and the mismatch between supply and demand of emergency public products, this paper analyzes the timeliness and time ductility of information under the disturbance of demand and supply, and constructs a government-led procurement decision-making model for emergency public products under delay control. In this paper, the whole-time decision problem is transformed into multiple sequential stage dynamic decision problems, and the decision variables of all decision subjects are regarded as a function of time for evolution analysis. Compare the supplier's utility in two cooperative and non-cooperative modes to determine the feasibility of the model. Through numerical simulation, the sensitivity of the optimal decision value and its related parameters are studied. The study shows that the cost of government emergency management is positively correlated with the value of time delay within a certain range, while the expected utility and flexible supply of emergency public goods suppliers are negatively correlated with the value of time delay. the actual demand for supplies and the procurement price of supplies in time delay control have different sensitivities in different time periods. The model can guide the government and related enterprises to make rational procurement and production decisions of emergency public goods after the disaster, so as to realize effective docking synergistic strategies.

     

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