1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

裁判文书潜在结构对司法判决预测的影响以彩礼返还纠纷案件的判决书为例

The Influence of the Potential Structure of Judicial Documents on the Prediction of Judicial JudgmentsTaking the Judgments of Bride Price Refund Dispute as an Example

  • 摘要: 构建司法判决预测模型,有助于优化类案检索与类案推荐的效果,从而提高审判质效,支撑智慧法院的辅助决策支持系统建设。文章结合法律领域特点进行知识表征与推理,从判决书中提取关键事实信息、地域信息和裁判理由的文本潜在结构,构建法律主题与文本潜在结构之间的映射关系,进一步地构建了司法判决预测模型。该模型可用于类案检索、类案推荐,支撑智慧法院的具体功能设计。实证结果表明:该模型在测试集上的AUC值达到0.876,比基线模型提升了9.9%;提高了判决的可解释性;并揭示了彩礼返还案件的地域差异性。研究验证了模型的预测准确性及可解释性,为类案检索与推荐提供了新的思路。

     

    Abstract: This article constructs a judicial judgment prediction model that optimizes similar case retrieval and recommendation, improves the quality and efficiency of trials, and supports the design of an intelligent court system. It combines the characteristics of the legal field for knowledge representation and reasoning, incorporates specialized legal knowledge, and extracts objective factual information, geographical details, and the latent text structure from legal judgments. A mapping between legal topics and the latent text structure is established. Based on these features, a judicial decision prediction model is constructed to conduct similar case retrieval and recommendation, further supporting the functional design of an intelligent court system. Experimental results show that the judicial decision prediction model achieves an AUC value of 0.876 on the test set, a 9.9% improvement over the baseline model. The proposed model enhances the interpretability of judgments, and significant regional variations are observed among the "bride price refund" cases. The experimental results confirm the predictive accuracy and interpretability of the proposed legal judgment prediction model. This research provides a new tool for similar case retrieval and recommendation.

     

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