1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

中美贸易不平衡对美国就业影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Imbalance on American Employment

  • 摘要: 中美贸易摩擦是由于中美双方的贸易差额状况及价值观念等差异所引起的贸易问题。随着两国经贸关系的快速发展,贸易摩擦日益加剧,美国曾多次宣称美中贸易逆差导致美国就业形势恶化。文章将理论与实证分析相结合,分析贸易收支对就业的影响机制,并选取1993—2018年美中两国贸易逆差额、美国失业人数、美国国内生产总值、美国劳动生产率的季度数据进行实证研究。结果表明:从长期来看,中美贸易失衡并不是美国失业人数增加的主要原因,美国劳动生产率及国内生产总值对其影响效应更大;从短期来看,美中贸易逆差甚至在一定程度上增加了美国就业机会。因此,将美国就业问题归结于中国对美长期贸易顺差是不合理、不客观的。

     

    Abstract: Sino-US trade frictions are caused by the trade balance and differences in values between China and the United States. With the rapid development of economic and trade relations between the two countries, trade frictions have become more and more serious. The United States has repeatedly claimed that the trade deficit between China and the United States has led to the deterioration of the employment situation in the United States. This paper combines theoretical and empirical analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of trade balance on employment. It takes quarterly data of the trade deficit between the United States and China, the number of unemployed people in the United States, the gross domestic product of the United States and the productivity of the United States from 1993 to 2018 to do empirical research. The results show that in the long run, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is not the main reason for the increase in the number of unemployed people in the United States. The impact of US labor productivity and GDP is even greater. In the short run, the Sino-US trade deficit has even reduced the number of unemployed people in the United States to some extent. Therefore, it is unreasonable and unobjective to attribute the US employment problem to China's long-term trade surplus with the United States.

     

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