Collective Dynamics of Fertility: Peer Effects on Fertility Intentions in Low-fertility Contexts

Population issues are crucial to national socioeconomic development, with low fertility emerging as a prominent challenge. The fertility intentions of childbearing-age groups directly impact overall fertility levels. This study uses data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2018 and 2022 and applies spatial econometric methods from geographic proximity and occupational homogeneity perspectives to examine how peer effects influence fertility intentions. The findings reveal that fertility intentions are positively affected by both neighborhood and occupational peer effects. Individuals' fertility intentions are significantly shaped by the intentions of others within the same geographical area and occupational group. Rural childbearing-age individuals are more influenced by neighborhood peers, while urban childbearing-age individuals are more affected by occupational peers. Additionally, reproductive-age males are generally more susceptible to peer effects than females. The study provides a new perspective on fertility patterns and offers insights for addressing declining fertility rates and optimizing fertility policies.